Superbowl time!

It’s hard not to brag about my Playoff picks this year. I mean, I’m actually developing a system that seems to be showing promise. Of course I know that I’m fooling myself because there is no way to guarantee gambling picks. I’m just getting lucky. However, I am 8-2 so far for the playoffs, so luck or no luck, I’m still winning money.

…and no, I will not be sharing this system with the world. Just a few picks here and there.

Superbowl XL

Seattle (+4) over Pittsburg
Everybody loves Pittsburg. Everybody! How else can a number 6 seed be favored over a number 1. This just seems crazy to me. With Seattle you get a better offense, better turnover ratio, and 4 extra points. With Pitt you get a slightly better defense, slightly more playoff experience, and slightly more momentum (beat 3 of the best teams in the NFL last 3 weeks). It’s a tough game to pick, but I’m going with the better team.

Rothlisburger scares me in this game. Last year he promised Bettis to get him a superbowl. Now they are in Bettis’ hometown in his last game ever. I have a feeling both of them are going to have monster games. But when you look at it, Seattle is the better team. How can you not pick them. They were the best team in the NFC and Pitt almost didn’t make the playoffs.

Last week: 2-0
Playoff Total: 8-2

Sidenote: Does Lofa Tatupu remind anyone of Teddy Bruschi? He’s just so much fun to watch. Just a little guy out-hustling everyone and making tackles and interceptions all over the field. This guy is going to be a superstar.

NFL disclaimer

Just to keep beating on this dead horse, I wanted to share a segment of Bill Simmons' column from today because it's hilarious. This is the disclaimer that The Sports Guy thinks the NFL should run before each game.

"We'd like to apologize in advance for the horrible officiating. We swear, these games aren't fixed, it just looks that way. We're just too cheap to make officiating a real priority or hire anyone who's under 40 years old and might still have his reflexes and eyesight. Even instant replay isn't helping -- it just makes these guys look three times more incompetent when they're overruling calls that never should have been made in the first place. These guys are boobs. We're sorry. Anyway, enjoy the game!"
-- Sincerely, the NFL

Football madness

Warning, super long post...

Ok, I swear I wrote this before The Sports Guy posted his column today. I actually wrote this yesterday, but felt bad about making my picks on a Tuesday so I was going to post it tomorrow instead. Anyway, I basically wrote the same thing that Bill Simmons did today, but I’m still posting it. So enjoy…

Seriously, with instant replay, how do refs still constantly get calls wrong. I loved it yesterday when the NFL admitted that the ref made the wrong call in the Pitt / Indy game this weekend. I didn’t see the game, but I’m just happy the NFL knows that their refs suck. However, I really wish they would have admitted to their mistake during the Pats game.

Ok, just to vent for a second. The Pats deserved to lose that game. They played terribly. It was painful to watch. But, the refs did screw them over. They messed up a pass interference call that led to a touchdown for Denver, which I’m fine with because mistakes happen, but when the whole “Champ Bailey interception and Ben Watson tackle” happened, I couldn’t believe it. Bailey obviously fumbled into the end zone. The replay clearly showed this. All you need is a middle school knowledge of geometry and you know that the ball went through the end zone.

Let me elaborate. Bailey was close to the 1 yard line and at least a yard from the sideline when he fumbled (clear in the replay). The Ball landed about 10 yards back and maybe 2 yards out on the sidelines. Draw a quick triangle and there is no possible way that it went out of bounds before it crossed the end-zone. No possible way!

That interception and undeserved touchdown buried the Pats. They probably wouldn’t have won, but you never know when the best playoff quarterback ever is on your team. If that call was rightfully reversed, I might be 7 – 1 with playoff picks right now. Since the refs suck (as the NFL has admitted), I’m only 6 – 2. Let’s see how I do this weekend.

Pittsburg (+3) over DENVER
Last week’s Denver/Pats game was decided by turnovers (and bad refereeing), and Denver has the edge again this week against the Steelers, which makes them a safe bet. But I hate the Broncos. I don’t want to root for them. Why don’t we look at the fact that the Steelers dominated the best team in the league last week, while the Broncos were handed a victory by the turnover happy Patriots. The Steelers have momentum. Then again, a sixth seed has never made the Superbowl before. I’m scared of this game.

SEATTLE (-4) over Carolina
Remember 2 years ago when the wildcard Panthers team went all the way to the Superbowl and barely lost to a far superior Pats team by 3 points? Well, this Panthers team is better than they were 2 years ago (at least on paper), and Seattle has a history of choking in big games. But I can’t pick two wildcard teams to make the Superbowl. What are the chances of that happening? Ok, how about we go with warm weather Carolina playing in cold weather Seattle. There’s my justification.

Last week: 2-2
Total Playoffs: 6-2

Side note: NFL MVP Shaun Alexander left in the beginning of last week’s Seattle/Washington game due to a concussion. So what happened? Seattle easily won the game. How is this guy the MVP? How valuable could he have been if they still easily win playoff games with out him? Sometimes I hate sports.

Division Week

After pulling off a nice 4-0 record for round one of the playoffs, I’ve decided to continue posting my picks until the season is over. Picking 3 road teams in round one was a little risky, but it paid off (literally). This week I’m toning it down to 2 road teams.

Carolina (+3) over CHICAGO
I really wanted to pick the Bears…. I really, really, really wanted to pick them. I love rooting for them, but Carolina just blanked the 3rd best offense in the league last week. So how will the Bears (26th best offense) score any points against them? Sure they are playing at home (it’s cold in chicago) and they’ve got the number 1 defense, but I don’t think it’s enough. It should be close so I’m taking the points.

… yes, I realize that my Super-bowl prediction included the Bears and now I’m picking against them. The Bears could win this game by 1 or 2 and my picks are still safe.

INDY (-9) over Pittsburg
I actually think these teams match up pretty well, but Indy has something to prove. They are at home, all rested up and want to win this for Dungy so they will blow this one out of the water. Plus, they’ve already destroyed the Steelers once this year.

New England (+3) over DENVER
The Pats have allowed 13 points in their last 4 meaningful games (last 2 games of regular season don’t count because they already clinched and were resting starters). 13 points in 4 games! That’s 3.25 points per game! That means they only need 1 point to cover the spread. Ok, maybe Denver is better than the Bucs, Bills, Jets and Jags, but how can you not take Brady and the Pats when they’re getting 3 points?

SEATTLE (-9) over Washington
The Skin’s have been on a hot streak, but they played like crap last week against a Bucs team that probably shouldn’t have made the playoffs. Seattle has a better offense, better defense, better quarterback, better turnover ratio, and they are playing in Seattle. Washington doesn’t have a chance.

Week 1: 4-0-0

Who votes for this crap?

I’m proposing that we change the name of the MVP award to something like “MIS (Most Impressive Stats) award” because right now MVP is a highly inaccurate name… as proven by the MLB and now the NFL.

Sure, Shawn Alexander had an amazing year and broke the NFL record for most rushing touchdowns, but he also played for a great team who probably would have done fairly well without him. Payton Manning (who finished second in the “MVP” voting), played worse this year than he did last and his team’s record improved! How could he be the most valuable when his team improves when he plays worse??? I don’t understand. I want to know who the idiots are that voted for him, then punch them in the face.

Without Tom Brady, the Patriots would not be in the playoffs. With all the injuries they had, the season should have been tanked by week 8. Brady put the Patriots on his shoulders and carried them until they got healthy. He is BY FAR the most valuable player on any team, but he finished 3rd in the voting.

I knew this was going to happen because the same thing happened in baseball last year. David Ortiz got robbed of the award because A-stupid-pretty-boy-rod had an amazing year of hitting homeruns when his team didn’t need them. Trust me, I watched more Yankee games last year than I care to admit. Aaron Small was much more valuable to the Yankees than Rodriguez was.

Brady, Tiki Barber, and Carson Palmer were all more valuable than Manning or Alexander this year. Ortiz and Vlad Guerrero were more valuable than A-rod last year. The award just doesn’t mean what it implies. So please, don’t call it the “Most Valuable Player Award” anymore because the most valuable players are not winning.

Am I pissed because two Boston players got screwed? Yup.

It's playoff time!

So the NFL regular season comes to a close and my office pool is over. I finished with a 134-122 record against the spreads (52.34 %), which was good enough for sixth place (out of 23). Not my best showing in the world, but it’s better than randomly picking teams and I beat “The Sports Guy” Bill Simmons (125-123-6).

I need to brag about these things once in a while so I can feel good about my gambling habit. I’m still playing with house money (won from last year’s football season) so “habit” has not become a “problem”... yet.

Since we've ruled out the possibility that I may have a gambling problem, I might as well post my playoff picks for week 1.

NEW ENGLAND (-8) over Jacksonville
Florida team playing in New England??? I smell blow out. Right now there is a 32 degree difference between Jacksonville and Boston. Also, is there really any possible way that I would ever bet against Brady in the playoffs? I don't think so.

Washington (+2.5) over TAMPA BAY
Say what you want about Washington being too beat up, but are you willing to bet on Chris Simms in the playoffs? I didn't think so.

Carolina (+2.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Sure the Giants are 7-1 at home this year, but the playoffs are completely different. I have a feeling this will be a close one, but I think Carolina's defense will get the best of Manning in the end.

Pittsburg (-3) over CINCINNATI
This was the toughest pick for me. I really wanted to go with the Bangles on this one, but the Steelers have the playoff experience and a far superior defense. Cincinnati had a light schedule this year, which makes me think they are not as good as their record shows.

... there you go. Free money.